The question hanging over Manhattan, Kansas, as we barrel toward the 2024 college football season isn’t just about win totals or bowl eligibility. It’s a more profound, more tantalizing one: Can Kansas State University football genuinely return to championship contention? I’ve been covering this sport long enough to know that the gap between being a very good team and a title-contending one is a chasm, not a step. For K-State, a program with a proud, gritty identity forged under Bill Snyder, the Chris Klieman era has been one of remarkable consistency and upward trajectory. Yet, the final leap remains elusive. It’s a puzzle, and one that reminds me, perhaps oddly, of a situation unfolding in a completely different sport an ocean away. I was reading about the Philippine volleyball scene recently, and a headline caught my eye: “STILL no Jia de Guzman for Creamline – for now, at least.” That single word, “STILL,” in all caps, carries a weight of anticipation, of a missing piece, of a championship-caliber team waiting for its linchpin to return. In a way, that’s the exact sentiment surrounding Kansas State’s 2024 aspirations. The framework is there. The culture is strong. But is the final, critical piece—or perhaps pieces—in place to transform a 9-4 team into a team that can challenge for a Big 12 title and, dare we say, a College Football Playoff spot in its new 12-team format?

Let’s break down the roster, because championship talk starts and ends there. The optimism in Manhattan is rightly centered on the return of quarterback Avery Johnson. His dynamic dual-threat ability, showcased in flashes last season like that 90-yard touchdown run against Texas Tech, offers a ceiling this offense hasn’t had in years. He’s the potential “Jia de Guzman” of this squad—the premier setter whose vision and decision-making elevate everyone around her. Without a settled, high-level quarterback, your championship dreams are just that: dreams. Johnson’s development as a consistent passer will be the single biggest determinant of K-State’s ceiling. He completed just 61.5% of his passes last year in limited action; that number needs to climb toward 65% with a significant jump in yards per attempt. Surrounding him is a typically physical K-State offensive line and a deep running back room featuring DJ Giddens, who rushed for over 1,200 yards. The receiving corps lost key players, but that’s where the “next man up” philosophy Klieman has instilled gets tested. I’m particularly keen to see if a player like sophomore Jayce Brown can become a true vertical threat. Defensively, the loss of stalwarts like linebacker Austin Moore is a hit, but the transfer portal brought in immediate help, like edge rusher Brendan Mott from Colorado. The secondary, a strength last year, returns experience. On paper, this looks like a top-25 team, maybe even top-15. But contention? That requires more.

This is where the “for now, at least” part of that volleyball headline feels relevant. For Creamline, the hope is that their star will return and complete the picture. For K-State, the “star” that needs to return isn’t a player, but a specific brand of football: dominant, error-free, and clutch in the biggest moments. The 2022 season, where they won the Big 12, was a masterclass in that. The 2023 season, with close losses to Missouri (30-27) and Texas (33-30 in overtime), showed they were a handful of plays away from something special, but also revealed the margin for error is razor-thin. To jump from 9-4 to 11-1 or better, you must win those coin-flip games. You need a defense that creates more than the 22 turnovers they forced last year—I’d argue a target of 28 is necessary for a championship run. You need an offense that converts in the red zone at a rate above 65%, not the 58.7% they posted in 2023. These aren’t abstract concepts; they are the hard, numerical benchmarks of elite teams. The schedule presents both opportunity and peril. A non-conference trip to Tulane won’t be a cakewalk, and the Big 12 slate is always a grind. But missing Texas and Oklahoma is a benefit, and the pivotal games—like hosting Arizona and traveling to Iowa State and West Virginia—are winnable. The path is there.

So, can they do it? My perspective, colored by years of watching teams almost make the leap, is cautiously optimistic, but with clear reservations. Avery Johnson is the kind of talent that can win games by himself, and Chris Klieman has proven he can build a tough, resilient program. The infrastructure is championship-caliber. However, I have a slight preference for teams with a more established, game-wrecking defensive line when I’m looking for true contenders, and that’s an area where K-State still has questions. Their sack total of 32 last year was good, not great. To win a league, you need a pass rush that terrifies opponents in obvious passing situations. If they can develop that, and if Johnson makes the expected sophomore leap, then yes, Kansas State can absolutely be in the mix come November. They won’t be the preseason favorite—that’ll likely be Utah or Kansas, believe it or not—but they have the blueprint. Just like Creamline fans await the return of their star setter with bated breath, K-State fans are waiting for all the components of their team to click simultaneously at the highest level. The pieces are on the board. The 2024 season will be about whether Chris Klieman and his staff can move them like champions. The opportunity is real, and in the new, expanded playoff world, that’s all you can ask for. The “STILL” in their story hasn’t been written yet; this fall, they get to define it.